2025 Hurricane Season Forecast: Fewer Storms, But US Landfall Risk Remains High

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less intense than last years record-breaking activity, but forecasters warn the risk of U.S. landfalls remains above average.

In a joint seasonal outlook released Thursday, The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 projected a total of 19 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger). While this is slightly lower than 2024s totals, it still exceeds the 30-year seasonal averages and underscores the potential for a dangerous season ahead.

More concerning than the raw numbers, according to the forecast team, is the likelihood of U.S. landfalls. Long-range wind pattern models suggest that more storms could be steered toward the East and Gulf Coasts in 2025. The forecast currently anticipates three hurricanes making U.S. landfall this season — down from five in 2024, but still above the long-term average of one per year.

“Since 1950, 23% of all North Atlantic hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S.,” noted Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2. While the total number of storms may be slightly lower, Crawford’s team points to storm tracks as the key risk factor this year.

Ocean temperatures, one of the major fuel sources for tropical systems, offer a mixed picture. Waters in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean remain warmer than average, but are cooler than they were in 2024. Meanwhile, parts of the eastern Atlantic — particularly the Main Development Region, where many hurricanes form — are closer to average or slightly cooler than last years record warmth. That could limit development in the latter half of the season, depending on how those temperatures trend over the summer.

Another key factor is the state of the El Niño–La Niña cycle. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration currently forecasts neutral conditions in the Pacific during the peak of the hurricane season. That means neither the storm-suppressing effects of El Niño nor the storm-enhancing influence of La Niña are expected to dominate, leaving conditions generally favorable for tropical development.

The 2025 outlook from The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 aligns closely with similar forecasts released earlier this month by Colorado State University, reinforcing the consensus that while the season may not match last years intensity, it still poses significant risks.

Forecasters emphasize that seasonal predictions dont indicate where or when storms will form or make landfall. Even during quieter years, a single powerful hurricane can have devastating consequences.

Those living in hurricane-prone areas, particularly along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts, are advised to prepare now — long before any storm watches or warnings are issued.